hin trading volumes throughout Asian electronic trading and the London session kept precious metals under pressure as the greenback bounced erratically between $1.3847 and $1.3975on Friday. However, a rally in US equity markets, possibly due to continued credit market thawing, eased investors' uncertainty. The resultant increase in investment fund flows filtered into precious metals, taking the metals higher during the New York session before a sudden reversal overnight as the greenback strengthened to $1.3850 again.
The rally during the New York session was also supported by higher crude oil prices (which we still believe reflects an inflated geopolitical risk premium). We note that WTI crudeoil gained from just above $42/bbl in early NY activity to just below $49/bbl in aftermarket electronic activity. Further oil price appreciation should anchor precious metal pricesin an environment of increased currency volatility.
On the economic data front, we note that both US and Eurozone December PMI manufacturing indices registered a contraction. US PMI manufacturing came in at 32.4 (forecast: 35), while the statistic for the Eurozone registered 33.9 (forecast: 34.5). Given that a PMI reading of less than 50 reflects a contraction, US and Eurozone industrial demand remains understrain - this should weigh on PGM in the short to medium term. The sentix Eurozone investor confidence index is due to be released later today - a worse-than-expected statistic could see the greenback claw even higher today. Important for PGM, lookout for US total vehicle sales tomorrow.
Gold slipped from $887 to $872 during Asian electronic activity, before shedding a further $7 in London. However, with oil prices picking up and the greenback losing some ground, gold then garnered fund-buying support - settling at $874 at the London PM fix. This continued in New York, with the metal gaining to $879 before consolidating at $878 at the close.Overnight, the metal plunged to $868. Primary support is at $863, with secondary support at $857 and $840. Resistance is at $880, $891 and $908.
Silver tracked gold throughout the day, finding major support in NY - managing to climb from $11.13 to $11.50, before consolidating at $11.48 at the close. Support and resistance are at $11.26 and $11.64, respectively, today.
Platinum bounced between $938 and $928 throughout London and Asia trading, before pushing higher in NY to $943 - settling at $938 at the NY close before plummeting to $930 overnight. Palladium traced platinum, dipping to $184 in London before $191 in NY - settling at $190 at the close. Compared to platinum, the metal endured a less rapid decline back to $190overnight after rising to $196 in the aftermarket activity. Rhodium fixed at $1,245.
Monday, January 5, 2009
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