A long-term cost perspective on PGM prices

Current PGM demand has made many projects unfeasible. But the fall in demand could also obliterate the deficit which has plagued the market over the past few years as well as push the market into a surplus until at least 2014. We expect demand to fall by almost 8% y/y, to 7,22m oz in 2009. Thereafter, we expect a y/y increases for platinum demand. The fall in demand is driven by car sales which could decline by 7m units from levels reached in 2008 as consumers in the US and Eurozone struggle to cope with economic conditions. We expect little support from jewellery demand which we expect to remain largely unchanged. Other industrial uses are also set to decline. In 2010, we expect a recovery in demand. While y/y growth rates could rise, the amount of platinum oz actually consumed would only reach the levels seen last year in 2011. By 2014, we estimate that total demand for platinum could reach 9.125m oz.

Platinum mine supply in 2008 is estimated at 6.7m oz. While we have already seen production cuts at platinum mines in South Africa, we doubt production cuts could completely offset the fall in demand in 2009. At current price levels, we expect production cuts of between 400K and 500K oz. Working with the low end of the range and adding 190K oz of new platinum supply coming to market, total supply should be 7.51m oz in 2009.

Furthermore, in H2:10, as demand starts to pick up, operations which were shut down this year could restart (we estimate 400K), allowing for supplyto come to the market faster than any new developments. We have assumed that the cutbacks are brought to market in equal proportions in 2010 and 2011. Another source of supply is scrap. While this is not set for a massive rise until 2011, scrap and recycled platinum could reach 1.8m oz by 2014. This, we believe, could see the platinum market in a constant surplus until 2014. Should recycled metal increase as mentioned, and demand is close to our assumed numbers, the surplus would rise rapidly as we approach 2014. Above-ground stock would rise as a result. Should this happen, it should restrain prices.

We use our PGM cost model to estimate a price for platinum, palladium and rhodium that is consistent with our estimate of a surplus of 300K oz of platinum in 2009, and the surpluses in following years. In our cost model, we assume mining inflation at 10% y/y until 2014 and ZAR/ USD at $10 in real terms. While cost inflation is low compared to mining inflation in the recent past, current deflationary forces should push some mining costs lower. We further assume that new projects would, in 2008 prices, not be more expensive than current operations. This assumption is justified on the premise that any mine more expensive than current mines would not be a viable operation, given the expected surplus in the market.

There is a caveat to our approach. Above-ground stock ofplatinum could rise by another 3.2m oz by 2014, from the current estimate of about 1m oz. As a result, the market could see this as excessive, and prices might fall. Above-ground stock of 4.2m oz would translate into a 160 days of consumption (at our 2014 demand levels) and this is much higher than the current estimate of 40 days. Arguably, some of the projects listed would not come to market, or at a much smaller scale.

"Cleo" valentine’s watch collection from Titan

Bold watches are in this season and this Valentine's Titan has got a line of watches called 'CLEO'.

Titan ‘CLEO’ reflects the energy and vibrancy of today's fashionistas. The watch is designed in a manner to fit for both both, office name wear or for a night out.

Styled with a louisiana croco leather strap in beige adorning the round studded case, this watch has a truly, contemporary form. The asymmetrically laid out indices in blue with an embellished seconds dial add a sparkling touch to complete this timepiece.This watch is priced at Rs. 3,995.

Meanwhile this contemporary creation with an international styling has a studded round case complemented with multi function features. The white dial comes to life with the sub dials further studded to highlight the day, date and the 24-hour function. With its graceful steel bracelet, this watch is an irresistible accessory for modern women. This wrist wear is priced at Rs. 5,495.

The collection is available at all World of Titan showrooms and department stores across the country.