A long-term cost perspective on PGM prices

Current PGM demand has made many projects unfeasible. But the fall in demand could also obliterate the deficit which has plagued the market over the past few years as well as push the market into a surplus until at least 2014. We expect demand to fall by almost 8% y/y, to 7,22m oz in 2009. Thereafter, we expect a y/y increases for platinum demand. The fall in demand is driven by car sales which could decline by 7m units from levels reached in 2008 as consumers in the US and Eurozone struggle to cope with economic conditions. We expect little support from jewellery demand which we expect to remain largely unchanged. Other industrial uses are also set to decline. In 2010, we expect a recovery in demand. While y/y growth rates could rise, the amount of platinum oz actually consumed would only reach the levels seen last year in 2011. By 2014, we estimate that total demand for platinum could reach 9.125m oz.

Platinum mine supply in 2008 is estimated at 6.7m oz. While we have already seen production cuts at platinum mines in South Africa, we doubt production cuts could completely offset the fall in demand in 2009. At current price levels, we expect production cuts of between 400K and 500K oz. Working with the low end of the range and adding 190K oz of new platinum supply coming to market, total supply should be 7.51m oz in 2009.

Furthermore, in H2:10, as demand starts to pick up, operations which were shut down this year could restart (we estimate 400K), allowing for supplyto come to the market faster than any new developments. We have assumed that the cutbacks are brought to market in equal proportions in 2010 and 2011. Another source of supply is scrap. While this is not set for a massive rise until 2011, scrap and recycled platinum could reach 1.8m oz by 2014. This, we believe, could see the platinum market in a constant surplus until 2014. Should recycled metal increase as mentioned, and demand is close to our assumed numbers, the surplus would rise rapidly as we approach 2014. Above-ground stock would rise as a result. Should this happen, it should restrain prices.

We use our PGM cost model to estimate a price for platinum, palladium and rhodium that is consistent with our estimate of a surplus of 300K oz of platinum in 2009, and the surpluses in following years. In our cost model, we assume mining inflation at 10% y/y until 2014 and ZAR/ USD at $10 in real terms. While cost inflation is low compared to mining inflation in the recent past, current deflationary forces should push some mining costs lower. We further assume that new projects would, in 2008 prices, not be more expensive than current operations. This assumption is justified on the premise that any mine more expensive than current mines would not be a viable operation, given the expected surplus in the market.

There is a caveat to our approach. Above-ground stock ofplatinum could rise by another 3.2m oz by 2014, from the current estimate of about 1m oz. As a result, the market could see this as excessive, and prices might fall. Above-ground stock of 4.2m oz would translate into a 160 days of consumption (at our 2014 demand levels) and this is much higher than the current estimate of 40 days. Arguably, some of the projects listed would not come to market, or at a much smaller scale.

Precious metals shine: Walter de Wet

Yesterday turned into a disaster for equities, crude oil and base metals. However, precious metals showed their mettle. With financial markets in such disarray, gold was the happy beneficiary.

After an uninspired start by equities in Asia yesterday morning, markets deteriorated as the day progressed. The FTSE in London shed 7.85%, followed by the S&P and Dow clocking losses of 3.85% and 3.58% respectively. Equities in Asia are listless again this morning in the wake of yesterday's shocking stock performances in Europe and the US after markets in Asia had closed. However, today should be less volatile trading as financial market investors regroup.

With panic spreading yesterday, the US dollar simply shone. It went from strength to strength, pushing from $1.3705 in Hong Kong to $1.3444 against the euro in New York. Should sentiment steady today, the dollar might give up some of these gains. However, we believe the euro will remain under pressure against the greenback in coming months.

Central bankers around the world, specifically European central bankers, are likely to work ceaselessly to return stability to financial markets. While a surprise interest rate cut is not our base-case scenario, we believe the odds of this have risen in Europe and the US. ECB president, Mr Trichet, will speak later today, followed by Fed Chair Bernanke. Markets will be scrutinizing their comments.

Gold started the day steadily, drifting around $830. But with panic infecting equity markets, investors piled into the yellow metal when European markets opened. Gold then climbed to $875.5 at the PM Fix. What makes this rally so noteworthy is that it happened despite a rampant US dollar. Towards the close in New York, gold had to surrender some gains; it closed at $864. Primary support is at $853, and secondary support at $843 and $822. Resistance is at $875, $888, and $906.

Silver started the day on the back foot, losing 30 cents in Asia, to trade at $11.00. But with gold pushing higher in Europe, silver followed, touching $11.50. In choppy trade, it bounced between $11.15 and $11.40. Support fell away towards the close, and silver closed at $11.04. Primary support is at $10.94 and secondary support at $10.64 - $10.50. Primary resistance is at $11.52, and secondary at $11.80.

Platinum also benefited from financial market uncertainty, tracking gold. It gained from $930 to just around $1,000 in New York. With momentum fading for gold, platinum closed at $973.

Palladium is still holding up well. Although trade has been erratic, it seems to have settled at $195 - $205. It closed at $198.

Rhodium dropped again, fixing at $3,195 in New York.

Platinum and Palladium hit multi-year lows in September

Platinum Group Metal (PGM) prices continued to fall in the month of September, with platinum and palladium hitting multi-year lows and all three metals posting double-digit month-on-month losses, said a Standard Bank report.

The PGMs traded far below their individual 200-day moving averages, driven lower in part by a stronger dollar and softer commodity prices in general, it said.

The report further added that the deteriorating outlook for the global economy was another contributing factor to the weakness in price. A significant source of downside pressure was attributed to data released during September showing marked declines in auto sales in Europe as well as in several key emerging markets, such as China and India.

Gold prices buffeted in September: Standard Bank

Gold prices were buffeted during the month of September in the same way as those of any other asset class, but in keeping with gold’s history as an investment vehicle (as well as a natural resource commodity), prices traded in a narrower range than the rest of the precious metals sector, said a report by Standard Bank on Monday.

The report said that between the start of September and the beginning of October, gold gained about 7% in price, while silver and PGM (Platinum group metals) prices fell. A single snapshot does not tell the whole picture, however, and the market itself experienced a variety of phases as problems escalated in the financial system.

One tangible element was the development of vast fund flows into the major Exchange Traded Funds as investors looked to reduce counterparty risk, it said.