Knowing Gold Price Seasonality-Karvy Comtrade

The yellow metal gold has seen a phenomenal rise in both 2008 and 2009. Last year we saw active gold future prices touching historical highs of $1033.90 a troy ounce backed by the depreciating dollar, leading to an increased appeal of the gold as alternate asset class. From thereon, gold prices fell to $681 levels as dollar appreciated on back of financial and economic uncertainty and cash liquidity got squeezed in the market. In the current year, prices seem to be back on bull track as they surge by 8.8% in a span of 48 days.

Demand for gold is broadly classified into jewelry fabrication, industrial application, government and central banks, and private investors. The demand is generally concentrated in the Indian subcontinent, Turkey, and the Middle Eastern nations. Over 50% of the demand comes from the jewelry sector while industrial & dental and investment contribute to the rest. In Q308, jewelry demand constituted 58% of the total gold demand, while the remaining two categories had a share of 9% and 33%, respectively. Investment demand is other major source of demand which is more during period of uncertainty.

Although prices have increased by 8.8% on COMEX, domestic market have witnessed an increase of 11.44% as rupee depreciated by 1.52% and demand during festive season picks up. For instance, when gold reached $1033.90 levels on March 17, 2008, MCX gold prices made a high of Rs.13397 per 10 grams, while now when gold prices on COMEX are at $962.70 levels; MCX gold prices are seen quoting at Rs.15200 levels. Commodity prices in the long term generally tend move in particular trend which is observed or analyzed in order to obtain likelihood of the same. The seasonality index in this regard helps one determine and identify the periodicity of the price action. Nevertheless as truly said by William I. Tierney, Jr., Mark L. Waller and Stephen H. Amosson "Seasonals are based on past prices and may merely reflect random effects rather than any true predisposition in market performance. Also, even if seasonal patterns are well founded and appear to be statistically reliable, seasonal effects can be over-whelmed by changing fundamental (and even technical) factors."

If seen historically, gold demand during October-March is high when compared to other months, as India, the world’s largest consumer of gold; goes through the festive and marriage seasons. Demand for gold is especially more during this period as gold is regarded as an eternal
beauty by Indians. Given below is the chart showing seasonal pattern in gold prices for the period during 2002-2008.

Prices of gold started rising from the month of September, took a dip between December and January and rose again until March. Between March and September, prices have been usually on the lower side.

Titan unveils Nebula Calligraphy Collection for men

Nebula, the exquisite range of solid 18K gold watches from Titan, has introduced Nebula Calligraphy - a collection inspired by the art of Calligraphy.

Bollywood actor Raima Sen unveiled the collection in the presence of Ms. Vandana Bhalla, Marketing Manager, Titan. Calligraphy means "beautiful writing".

Free spirited & uninhibited, this art form extends from alphabets to numerals to even abstract expressions using a vivid palette of colors. Meticulously crafted in 18K Gold, the Nebula Calligraphy collection is a unique blend of intricate craftsmanship and the delightful art of Calligraphy. Studded with dazzling diamonds and Italian styled leather straps, watches in this collection are brought alive by the exquisite use of calligraphy on the dials. Indices in the devnagri script adorn the mother of pearl dials while Sanskrit lipi shlokas quietly form the backdrop in some of the watches. The Classic forms and simple elegance captures the ingenuity and creativity of an invaluable collectible.

Speaking on the occasion, Ms. Vandana Bhalla, Marketing Manager, Titan, said, "Every collection from Titan enables our customers to connect with their deep-rooted yearnings of self-expression, encouraging them to Be More in their lives. Nebula Calligraphy is a beautiful illustration of this theme as it allows them to bring alive their hidden love for art".

Unveiling the collection, Raima Sen, Bollywood actor said, "I am truly impressed with the inspiration and refined styling of these watches. I am an ardent lover of all art forms and the flowing lines of calligraphy as an art appeals greatly to me. I think every watch in this new collection from Titan Nebula is a beautiful piece of art." Created by the Titan design studio, every Nebula watch is crowned with a sapphire glass crystal and comes with a lifetime warranty.
This unique men's collection is available in 7 different styles, offering dial designs that range from the subtle use of the art to bolder versions. The collection is designed to appeal the discerning men with a keen interest in art forms. Priced between Rs. 65,000 – Rs. 95,000/-, the Nebula Calligraphy collection is available exclusively at the World of Titan showrooms across the country.

About Titan Nebula: Nebula is an exclusive collection of 18k solid gold jewellery watches from Titan Industries Ltd. and India's first solid gold watch brand. Crafted in 18k gold, the elegant watches are a blend of the rich heritage of Indian jewellery and the fine craftsmanship of watch making. The Nebula collection comprises a variety of exquisite watches in 18k gold both plain and embellished with pearls and diamonds. The Nebula range is available in kada & bracelet styles for women besides the classic leather strap style. For men, there are options available in leather strap or pure gold strap. The entire Nebula collection of jewellery watches ranges from Rs. 18,000 to Rs. 1,50,000 and is available across all World of Titan showrooms. Each watch comes with a lifetime warranty and is designed to last for generations.

About Titan Industries: Titan Industries Limited, a joint venture between the Tata Group and the Tamil Nadu Industrial Development Corporation (TIDCO) commenced operations in 1987 under the name Titan Watches Limited. In 1994, Titan Industries diversified into Jewellery and more recently into Prescription Eyewear with Titan Eye+. Today Titan Industries is India's leading producer and retailer of watches and jewellery, and is credited with changing the face of the Indian watch as well as the jewellery industry. The watch division has a domestic market share of over 70% of the organized market. Titan Industries reported a turnover of Rs. 3,046 Crore for the year ended 2007 - 08. As a full range producer-marketer, Titan Industries offers the Indian and International customer a very large range of products to suit various consumer preferences. Its products are recognized for innovation in design, quality and reliability.

Precious metals directionless:Standard Bank

hin trading volumes throughout Asian electronic trading and the London session kept precious metals under pressure as the greenback bounced erratically between $1.3847 and $1.3975on Friday. However, a rally in US equity markets, possibly due to continued credit market thawing, eased investors' uncertainty. The resultant increase in investment fund flows filtered into precious metals, taking the metals higher during the New York session before a sudden reversal overnight as the greenback strengthened to $1.3850 again.

The rally during the New York session was also supported by higher crude oil prices (which we still believe reflects an inflated geopolitical risk premium). We note that WTI crudeoil gained from just above $42/bbl in early NY activity to just below $49/bbl in aftermarket electronic activity. Further oil price appreciation should anchor precious metal pricesin an environment of increased currency volatility.

On the economic data front, we note that both US and Eurozone December PMI manufacturing indices registered a contraction. US PMI manufacturing came in at 32.4 (forecast: 35), while the statistic for the Eurozone registered 33.9 (forecast: 34.5). Given that a PMI reading of less than 50 reflects a contraction, US and Eurozone industrial demand remains understrain - this should weigh on PGM in the short to medium term. The sentix Eurozone investor confidence index is due to be released later today - a worse-than-expected statistic could see the greenback claw even higher today. Important for PGM, lookout for US total vehicle sales tomorrow.

Gold slipped from $887 to $872 during Asian electronic activity, before shedding a further $7 in London. However, with oil prices picking up and the greenback losing some ground, gold then garnered fund-buying support - settling at $874 at the London PM fix. This continued in New York, with the metal gaining to $879 before consolidating at $878 at the close.Overnight, the metal plunged to $868. Primary support is at $863, with secondary support at $857 and $840. Resistance is at $880, $891 and $908.

Silver tracked gold throughout the day, finding major support in NY - managing to climb from $11.13 to $11.50, before consolidating at $11.48 at the close. Support and resistance are at $11.26 and $11.64, respectively, today.

Platinum bounced between $938 and $928 throughout London and Asia trading, before pushing higher in NY to $943 - settling at $938 at the NY close before plummeting to $930 overnight. Palladium traced platinum, dipping to $184 in London before $191 in NY - settling at $190 at the close. Compared to platinum, the metal endured a less rapid decline back to $190overnight after rising to $196 in the aftermarket activity. Rhodium fixed at $1,245.

Bullion prices likely to trade sideways today: Karvy Commodities

Gold prices traded in the range of $821-$883.6 a troy ounce with prices rallying strongly in the initial three sessions, as the depreciating dollar enhanced the appeal of metal as an alternate asset class.

The dollar fell significantly against the euro and fell to $1.4719 levels as US Federal Reserve Bank slashed the target lending rate by 75 basis points to 0.25%, the lowest ever. The consensus was of a 50 basis points cut. With policy makers emphasizing that Fed will employ all available tools to promote the resumption of sustainable economic growth and to preserve price stability;the metal gold was seen to be strongly buoyant.

Nevertheless, gold prices pared gains as oil fell below $33 a barrel and dollar recovered on speculation that decline in dollar was too steep. Reports showing lesser than expected decline in initial jobless claims and Philadelphia Fed Index, followed by European Commission comments that the euro region may suffer a “substantial” effect from the financial crisis next year supportedthe gains in dollar.

Today on the electronic session, gold prices are currently trading higher by around six dollars,backed by weak dollar and firmer opening in crude oil prices. Silver also gained. On the economic front, we have euro-zone industrial new orders to watch for. The data is expected to side down further in the month of November by further 4%.

On the whole, we expect a higher opening ondomestic MCX market and prices are expected to be trading sideways for the day.

Gold prices climb due to global economic slump: Karvy Comtrade

Gold prices traded in the range of $729.6-$802.8 a troy ounce, as the firmer US dollar propelled a volatile movement in the precious metals sector. The slump in equities in conjunction to the deepening crisis has eroded the investor confidence, thereby proving negative for the precious metals. The price of crude oil dropping below $49 a barrel renewed speculation that a global recession will cut demand for precious metals and raw materials. The dollar rose against the euro as prices paid to U.S. producers plunged and homebuilder confidence fell, increasing demand for the safety of government debt indicted by the substantial increase in TIC flows.

However, prices erased earlier losses and moved higher on speculation the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates to stimulate the U.S. economy, boosting the appeal of the precious metal as an alternative asset. The yield on two-year Treasury notes dropped below 1 percent for the first time ever on bets the Fed will cut its benchmark rate next month. The poor housing sector performance, steep increase in jobless claims and contracting manufacturing activity helped gold prices to move higher. On the weekend, gold prices climbed as the global economic slump dragged down asset prices and boosted the appeal of the precious metal as a store of value.

According to the world gold council, the demand for the precious metal increased 18 % in the third quarter as lower prices encouraged purchases by jewelers and as investors sought a haven from the credit crisis. So-called identifiable investment, which includes purchases through exchange-traded funds and of bars and coins, climbed 56 % to 382.1 tons during the quarter.

Other precious metals, which have wider industrial applications than gold, fell on concern that a global recession may damp demand for all commodities. The International Monetary Fund projected that economies in the U.S., Japan and the euro zone will all shrink in 2009.

This week, fundamentally we expect gold prices to trade sideways amid lower US GDP growth (P), declining home sales and durable goods orders. The gains are likely to be limited by the strengthening dollar and poor economic condition in euro-zone.

Titan Industries Net Profit up 88.2%

Titan Industries reported that its second quarter Net Profit has jumped up by 88.2%. The company reported its net profit increased to Rs87.14cr from Rs46.30cr in same quarter previous year.

The Company registered an increase of 52.4% in its income which was Rs1,104.85cr as compared to Rs725.11cr, during the corresponding period last year.

The groups’s core businesses-Watches and Jewellery, have grown significantly over the previous year, the company said in a statement.

The Company’s Watch sales grew by 18.8% with its income increasing from Rs255.34cr during the second quarter of last year to Rs303.45cr in second quarter of 2008.

While the Jewellery income grew by 71.4% to Rs752.18cr versus Rs438.84cr in same period previous year. The spurt in jewellery income was also due to the increase in gold price during the quarter, the company said.

“We have had a significant expansion in the network. Despite high volatility in gold prices, the Tanishq and Gold Plus showrooms continue to attract discerning customers who value our products and service offerings. We will be launching a number of new collections in watches, jewellery and eyewear categories during the coming festival season,” said MD of Titan Industries, Bhaskar Bhat.

The group’s other businesses grew by 93.7% from Rs17.62cr during the quarter in 2007 of last year to Rs34.13cr during the corresponding period this year.

The company said in a statement that the first half of the current year has shown good growth and its Net profit has jumped by 102.5%, from Rs58.94cr during last year to Rs119.36cr this year.

Watch sales have grown over 12% to Rs475.34cr and Jewellery sales have grown by 51% to Rs1,367.90cr compared to last year. Total sales are also reported to be up by 38.2% from Rs1,391.70cr during last year to Rs1,923.91cr this year.

Gold still on the back foot: Standard Bank

“Gold is still on the back foot. With more dollar strength in the pipeline, the yellow metal is putting up little resistance,” said a Standard Bank report on Wednesday.

On MCX, the December contract for gold was trading at (14:54 IST) Rs12,188, down by about 1.5% from its day’s high of Rs12,317 on Wednesday.

MCX Gold December gold prices plunged to Rs12,307 levels and settled at Rs12,377 levels on Tuesday.

“Market is expected to come down and the next supports can be seen at Rs12,200 and then Rs12,050 levels,” said a Karvy Comtrade report on Wednesday.

The report also mentioned that the resistances can be seen at Rs12,400 and then at Rs12,436 levels. “If market sustains below Rs12,436 we may expect gold trading lower. We recommend taking short positions for the day,” it added.

The Standard Bank report also mentioned that after a steady opening just below $800 in Tokyo, gold moved gradually south as the euro weakened. At $790, some stops were triggered, and the metal quickly fell to $785, it said.

“With the dollar still on the rise, gold could remain under pressure today. Primary support is at $757, and a secondary support band at $742 - $720. Resistance is at $794, $810 and $818,” it said.

WGC, HDFC Bank tie up to extend personal loans

World Gold Council (WGC) has got-together with HDFC Bank to offer personal loans for gold buyers. The step taken is in effort to boost gold sales in India. The service is expected to be launched across the country over next few days.

HDFC will provide personal loans at an interest rate of 16%. In place of security against the loan the bank will keep back the purchased gold on behalf of the customers until the entire cost is paid back to the bank. Starting three months from the date of purchase the consumer can pay the entire amount of loan in installments.

Initially the bank will provide loans for up to 50gm of pure gold but plans to provide loans for bigger investors too in the future.

Sona Swiss unveils 'Gifts in Gold' collection for Diwali

Sona Swiss unveiled 'Gifts in Gold' for Diwali. The new range launched is a diverse collection of products in 24 karat gold foil made with unique 3D technology.

The range includes Divine Collection, Flower Garland, Gold foil playing cards, Art décor frames and new range of gold flower collections and lots more.

The 24 karat gold foil art décor products range are handcrafted and have been specially designed and created using traditional goldsmith's skill combined with the latest patented 3D Art Technology.

‘The Divine collection’ includes 3D frames of Ganesha, Laxmi, Saraswati, Durga, Ganesh-Laxmi Pair, Ganesh-Laxmi-Saraswati Trio, Balaji, Shreenathji and Radha Krishna while the ‘Gold flower collection’ includes 24k gold rose, 24k gold carnation, flower brooch/ hair accessory collection, bouquet, 24k gold foil pendants and 24k gold cards.

All the products are made of pure 24 carat Gold leaf with a purity of 999.9 in a thousand. The company has also been independently certified for their gold purity by the Assay offices in London and New York.

All the gold products are also certified from Taiwan, USA and the gold foil products are patented for designing and manufacturing. All gold materials used by the company are of high purity and are imported from Switzerland.

Analysts expect gold to resume lower trend

Market is expected to make a higher opening and the immediate resistance can be seen at Rs12,800 levels. Likewise, the supports are at Rs12,650 and then Rs12,570 levels. Analysts are expecting gold to resume lower trend after a brief higher correction.

Gold prices remained range bound and traded sideways in Monday’s session, in the absence of any major economic trigger.

The only economic data from the US was the leading indicator for the month of September, which unexpectedly rose thereby giving a lift to the dollar, said a Kravy Comtrade report.

For the day, as the market awaits no economic data, prices are likely to remain sideways. However the report also said that the strengthening US dollar is likely to put pressure on the bullion market, hence indicating a bias on the lower side.

The dollar advanced for a fifth day against the euro after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke endorsed additional fiscal stimulus to support the US economy. The dollar traded at 18-month high levels against the euro on this act of the chairman, it said.

The MCX December contract for gold prices were seen trading sideways while closing it formed a technical Doji pattern in the daily chart and closed at Rs12,682 levels.

US Federal testimony awaited: Karvy Comtrade

On account of weakening US dollar today bullion prices are trading higher by almost $12 on account of weakening US dollar. The dollar is seen to weaken on concern that the US Federal Chairman may forecast a prolonged downturn when he speaks today.

Ben Bernanke will testify at the House Budget Committee on the economic outlook and financial markets at 10 am in Washington. The continued poor economic data emerging from the nation has lead to poor economic outlook for the world’s largest economy.

Single-family home building sank to the slowest pace in 26 years in the US in September and the industrial production index dropping to 2.5 years lows, has increased lower economic prospects. The economic sentiment is badly hit as there seems to be no symptoms of revival in the housing sector.

No major economic data is awaited today; however the outcome of the US Federal chairman’s testimony will be crucial to watch out for. Prices are likely to remain on the sidelines for the day, on back of the weaker US dollar and uncertainty of the economic revival.

“The December contract gold on MCX traded lower and posted a lower closing at Rs12,587 levels. Market is moving lower as it is trading below the 50-day EMA in the daily chart. Market is likely to take an initial correction and the immediate resistance is seen at Rs12,624-Rs12,650 levels. If prices are sustaining below the resistance we may expect market trading lower. The supports are at Rs12,400 then Rs12,325 levels,” said a daily commodity report by Karvy Comtrade.

Tanishq unveils hi-end jewellery collection ‘Aleya’

Tanishq announced the launch of their exquisite ‘Aleya’ collection, a range of hi-end diamond jewellery set in 22k gold.

Aleya, which means "to rise or ascend" in Hebrew or "highborn or of the highest social standing" in Arabic, is a mixture of polki or uncut diamond and semi-precious stones like rubies and tourmalines set in 22 karat gold with an open setting.

"We at Tanishq aim at offering the best and the latest design in line with the existing trends. Aleya Collection from Tanishq is designed keeping in mind the demand for variations in diamond jewellery and also a requirment for the forthcoming wedding season. We have about 150 designs ranging from neckwear, earring, finger ring etc. that is carfted using uncut diamonds and semi-precious stones," said Sangeeta Dewan, Head of Tanishq’s Design Studio.

The collection is priced Rs40,000 onwards and will be available at 50 Tanishq's stores across all major metros and select tier-II cities.

Tanishq’s jewellery is manufactured in a fully integrated manufacturing plant with state-of-the-art equipment. The Tanishq retail chain currently includes 112 exclusive boutiques in 75 cities, making it India's first and largest jewellery retail store chain.

Precious metals shine: Walter de Wet

Yesterday turned into a disaster for equities, crude oil and base metals. However, precious metals showed their mettle. With financial markets in such disarray, gold was the happy beneficiary.

After an uninspired start by equities in Asia yesterday morning, markets deteriorated as the day progressed. The FTSE in London shed 7.85%, followed by the S&P and Dow clocking losses of 3.85% and 3.58% respectively. Equities in Asia are listless again this morning in the wake of yesterday's shocking stock performances in Europe and the US after markets in Asia had closed. However, today should be less volatile trading as financial market investors regroup.

With panic spreading yesterday, the US dollar simply shone. It went from strength to strength, pushing from $1.3705 in Hong Kong to $1.3444 against the euro in New York. Should sentiment steady today, the dollar might give up some of these gains. However, we believe the euro will remain under pressure against the greenback in coming months.

Central bankers around the world, specifically European central bankers, are likely to work ceaselessly to return stability to financial markets. While a surprise interest rate cut is not our base-case scenario, we believe the odds of this have risen in Europe and the US. ECB president, Mr Trichet, will speak later today, followed by Fed Chair Bernanke. Markets will be scrutinizing their comments.

Gold started the day steadily, drifting around $830. But with panic infecting equity markets, investors piled into the yellow metal when European markets opened. Gold then climbed to $875.5 at the PM Fix. What makes this rally so noteworthy is that it happened despite a rampant US dollar. Towards the close in New York, gold had to surrender some gains; it closed at $864. Primary support is at $853, and secondary support at $843 and $822. Resistance is at $875, $888, and $906.

Silver started the day on the back foot, losing 30 cents in Asia, to trade at $11.00. But with gold pushing higher in Europe, silver followed, touching $11.50. In choppy trade, it bounced between $11.15 and $11.40. Support fell away towards the close, and silver closed at $11.04. Primary support is at $10.94 and secondary support at $10.64 - $10.50. Primary resistance is at $11.52, and secondary at $11.80.

Platinum also benefited from financial market uncertainty, tracking gold. It gained from $930 to just around $1,000 in New York. With momentum fading for gold, platinum closed at $973.

Palladium is still holding up well. Although trade has been erratic, it seems to have settled at $195 - $205. It closed at $198.

Rhodium dropped again, fixing at $3,195 in New York.

Gold prices buffeted in September: Standard Bank

Gold prices were buffeted during the month of September in the same way as those of any other asset class, but in keeping with gold’s history as an investment vehicle (as well as a natural resource commodity), prices traded in a narrower range than the rest of the precious metals sector, said a report by Standard Bank on Monday.

The report said that between the start of September and the beginning of October, gold gained about 7% in price, while silver and PGM (Platinum group metals) prices fell. A single snapshot does not tell the whole picture, however, and the market itself experienced a variety of phases as problems escalated in the financial system.

One tangible element was the development of vast fund flows into the major Exchange Traded Funds as investors looked to reduce counterparty risk, it said.

Markets still shaky: Standard Bank

US legislators passed the much disputed $700bn rescue bill late on Friday but markets are not convinced of its ability to revive gridlocked credit markets, said a report by Standard Bank.

While US inter- bank lending rates have declined, they’re still extremely high, it said. Despite authorities’ efforts, banks remain suspicious of counterparties’ ability to honour financial obligations.

Scepticism around the rescue plan is also being demonstrated by Asian equities having fallen sharply this morning, the report said. The Nikkei was down more than 4%, followed by the Hang Seng at 3.5%. US equity futures have lost more than 1.5%, possibly signalling another red day in US equity markets.

Global fears continue to translate into high demand for US Treasuries at the expense of other assets. The main beneficiary have been the USD which has gained ground from $1.3850 to as low as $1.3605 against the euro.

“We expect this trend to continue if the Europe and the US track Asian markets later today,” said Standard Bank’s commodity analyst Walter De Wet.

On the data front, Friday’s US non-farm payrolls, which declined by 159,000 which was much more than the estimated forecast decline of 100,000 adds to the list of negative data.

“Faced with a stronger dollar, PGM and silver will see little support. We estimate the average PGM basket price currently at $847/oz. While the market is currently more concerned about demand, persistent low prices would put many mines in financial difficulty,” said Walter.

Walter also mentioned that the yellow metal is still dithering and with investors unwilling to commit to major positions on Friday, gold traded erratically at $845/oz-$825/oz.

After finding some support early in Asia, which pushed gold from $830/oz to $845/oz, gold lost its direction as the dollar drifted around $1.383. A series of sharp spikes followed when US markets opened, but gold remained stuck at $825/oz-$845/oz. It closed at $828.5/oz on Friday, and held up well in the aftermarket after the rescue plan was passed, reflecting the lingering concerns in financial markets, said the report.

“Primary support is at $821/oz, and secondary support at $807/oz and $803/oz. Resistance is at $848/oz, $861/oz, and $888/oz,” said Walter.

The report mentioned that silver initially found solid support in Asia as it gained $0.65, to trade at $11.40/oz, before it stabilized in Europe. Renewed buying support in New York saw the metal shoot to $11.70/oz, just to subside again when gold lost steam. Silver ended the week at a bid of $11.25/oz.

“Primary support is at $11.00/oz and secondary support at $10.88/oz-$10.70/oz. Primary resistance is at $11.65/oz, and secondary at $12.00/oz,’ said Walter.

Platinum remains under pressure; on Friday, trade was choppy. The metal failed to break above $1,000/oz, bouncing between $950/oz and $980/oz. With the stronger dollar, platinum could remain under pressure today. It closed at $955/oz on Friday.

Palladium is holding up well despite platinum’s move lower. Although the metal dropped to $195/oz on Friday, it managed to claw its way back in New York and closed at $198/oz. Rhodium lost $60/oz, to fix at $3,210/oz in New York, it said.

Commodity prices weaken due to global slowdown fears

Fears of slower international economic growth coupled with a sharp appreciation of the USD against the EUR combined to drag commodity prices (USD terms) lower, said a report by Commonwealth Bank of Australia on Friday.

It also mentioned that the recent US economic data has been soft, with data released earlier this week showing that the US ISM manufacturing index declined in September, while US auto sales had been weak in September.

Moreover, commodity markets are increasingly concerned that the post-Olympics bounce in Chinese economic activity has been tepid.

The oil price fell back in response to the firmer USD and worries about the implications of weaker international economic growth for oil demand. NYMEX light sweet crude (November contract) touched $94/barrel. The gold price (spot) also slipped sharply, with selling related to the firmer USD and lower oil prices outweighing safe-haven related demand, it said.

“Markets are nervous, erratic and unpredictable, and investors are risk-averse. And so, commodities sold off relentlessly, driving prices down. Precious metals were hard hit, with silver taking the brunt, sacrificing 12.85%. Platinum lost 5.5%, palladium 4.3%, and gold 4.5%,” said a Standard Bank analyst Walter de Wet in a report.

Although platinum came under early selling pressure due to worse-than-expected US auto sales, precious metals were initially stable, the Standard Bank report said. However, the decision by the ECB not to cut interest rates, combined with a bearish statement on the Eurozone, triggered broad asset liquidation. The dollar then appreciated rapidly against most currencies. It went from $1.39 to a low of $1.3748 against the euro. As of now, it remains well below $1.39, it said.

“We foresee more disorder for markets. If the US House of Representatives passes the financial rescue package tonight, it would bring some relief, but not enough to restore confidence. Credit markets still have too much asymmetric information, which is inhibiting risk appetite. Against the backdrop of the slowdown in real economic activity globally, commodities will stay under pressure. These conditions would favour the US dollar and, because of little liquidity, gold could battle to rise much higher despite credit risk being high,” Walter said.

Analysts and traders are keeping an eye on the US non-farm payrolls due for release tonight. Markets expect a decline of 105K jobs. Anything more could see more money flee from commodities, the report said.

The Standard Bank report also mentioned that the yellow metal stayed on the back foot. Although it traded steadily lower in Asia and Europe, the weak euro dragged it down from around $870/oz to $865/oz. The major sell-off started just before the PM fix, and gold plunged to $830/oz as the US dollar strengthened. It closed at $842.50/oz. Primary support for gold is at $830/oz, and secondary at $820/oz and $803/oz. Resistance is at $864/oz, $892/oz, and $900/oz.

Morning trade was orderly, with the silver metal tracking gold, but the sell-off after gold's drop was merciless and Silver took a beating. Just before New York opened, silver slid to $11.80/oz. After failing to settle, it shed another 50c in US trade, closing at $11.05/oz. Primary support is at $11/oz and secondary at $10.30/oz-$10.25/oz. Primary resistance is at $12/oz, and secondary at $12.18/oz.

While Platinum sentiment remains negative the bearish economic data, scarce liquidity and the strong dollar are intimidating it. Platinum dropped early in Europe, from $1,040/oz to $980/oz. It then spent the day bouncing, and closed at $973/oz.

Palladium was pushed down all the way from $213/oz in Asia to $203/oz in Europe to $200/oz in the US, and closed at $199/oz. $200/oz is providing some support. Meanwhile Rhodium dropped more than $500/oz on Thursday, to $3,270/oz in New York.

"Road Side Romeo" collection launched by Popley's Disney Fine Jewellery

The Popley's Disney Fine Jewellery division has launched a new range of diamond jewellery called "Road Side Romeo" collection.

With the animated movie, this collection will mark The Walt Disney the company's first Indian collaboration. RoadsideRomeo, which is the animated movie will feature Saif Ali Khan and Kareena Kapoor's voice over.

Popley & sons have designed the pendants to displays the love betweenthe two characters 'Romeo' and 'Laila' in the movie. The desgined pendant is a Unisex piece of jewellery with the oval shape getting converted into a heart shape. The oval pendant has the image of Romeo while the heart shape is accompanied by Laila.

The pendant is studded with brilliant cut diamonds in 18 karat gold and is limited to only eight pieces worldwide. The collection will be available only at Popley & Sons stores.