BULLION
Bullion prices gained last week amidst a plethora of weak economic numbers, plunging global stocks and a slowing world economy. The appeal of the yellow metal as a safe haven drove its prices to an eleven month high of $1007.70 levels per troy ounce which is the highest since March 18, 2008. Silver also gained, tracking gold, with prices ending the week at $14.49 a troy ounce, up by 6.35%. The financial crisis has resulted in a recession in most of the developed nations with some investors buying gold due to fears that government measures are insufficient to bring the economy out of recession, while others buying the metal on speculation that money injection will fuel inflation. The Japanese economy shrank by 3.3% Q/Q, further deepening into a recession. The finance ministers of the G-7 (Group of Seven) countries held a meeting in Rome on Sunday, stating that a "severe" economic downturn will persist for most of 2009. The economic data provided credence to the above statement as the numbers reported a further decline. Economic data continued to worsen as Housing Starts dropped to its all time low of 4,66,000 units. Building Permits, which is a gauge of future housing activity, also fell by 5,21,000 units while industrial production fell by 1.8% in January, which is the lowest level in five years. In addition, the US Empire Manufacturing and the Philadelphia Federal Index also contracted sharply, proving fatal for the economy. The Fed revised its 2009 outlook and stated that the economy will contract between 0.5% and 1.3%. It also set its inflation target of 2%, while the unemployment rate is projected to rise between 8.5 and 8.8%.
Bullion prices are bound to gain in turbulent times as asset classes like equities and currencies continue to erode value. Investments in SPDR gold funds climbed to a record-high last week and are just shy of 1,040 tonnes, held by Switzerland, which is the sixth-largest stockpile. The holding stood at an astounding 1,029 tonnes. According to the London-based World Gold Council, investment demand for bullion, including coins and bars, almost tripled to 399 tons in the fourth quarter, as total demand climbed 26 percent to 1,036.5 tonnes. Investment in Barclays Plc’s IShares Silver Trust, the biggest ETF backed by silver, also rose to a record last week, topping 7,892.2 metric tons.
The most active COMEX Gold April futures contract surged by 6.37% and closed at $1002 a troy ounce. This week, the GDP and housing data along with Euro-zone industrial new orders and unemployment will be crucial to watch out for. Expected downturn in the US economic growth rate is likely to result in firm movement in bullion prices. Moreover, investments into
Technical view: XAU- SPOT GOLD
Spot gold rose sharply in the last week, witnessing more than 5.64 per cent from the previous weeks close and settled the week at $992.45 levels. Market also witnessed a high of $1005.40 levels. Market has been moving higher for the past two consecutive weeks as the short term as well as medium term moving averages are trading below the price levels. Technically, market is moving in a rising trend channel and shown a higher break out signaling prices to move further up in the coming sessions. Likewise, the momentum indicator RSI-14, weekly, is supporting the trend as it is currently treading at 0.65 levels. The momentum indicator has still potential to move further up and may enter into overbought territory.
However, in the daily price chart, the RSI-14 is treading at 0.72 levels, which shows, after an upward movement, market may set for a correction. Market is moving above the 76.4% retracement of the previous correction (from $1030.80 to $680.80), signifying auxiliary upwards move. Taking Elliot principles into consideration, the current trend which has resumed from $680.80 is the 5th impulse wave which is likely to move beyond previous top ($1030.80, or top of wave-3). On break of the same it may advance to $1060-1080 levels. However, for the week, we may expect market moving up to $1007.10 and breach of the same it may test $1030.80 levels. Likewise, on the lower side the supports are at $975 and then $960 levels. If market sustains above $975-960 range, then we may see prices to remain on higher levels for the week ahead.
Monday, February 23, 2009
Knowing Gold Price Seasonality-Karvy Comtrade
The yellow metal gold has seen a phenomenal rise in both 2008 and 2009. Last year we saw active gold future prices touching historical highs of $1033.90 a troy ounce backed by the depreciating dollar, leading to an increased appeal of the gold as alternate asset class. From thereon, gold prices fell to $681 levels as dollar appreciated on back of financial and economic uncertainty and cash liquidity got squeezed in the market. In the current year, prices seem to be back on bull track as they surge by 8.8% in a span of 48 days.
Demand for gold is broadly classified into jewelry fabrication, industrial application, government and central banks, and private investors. The demand is generally concentrated in the Indian subcontinent, Turkey, and the Middle Eastern nations. Over 50% of the demand comes from the jewelry sector while industrial & dental and investment contribute to the rest. In Q308, jewelry demand constituted 58% of the total gold demand, while the remaining two categories had a share of 9% and 33%, respectively. Investment demand is other major source of demand which is more during period of uncertainty.
Although prices have increased by 8.8% on COMEX, domestic market have witnessed an increase of 11.44% as rupee depreciated by 1.52% and demand during festive season picks up. For instance, when gold reached $1033.90 levels on March 17, 2008, MCX gold prices made a high of Rs.13397 per 10 grams, while now when gold prices on COMEX are at $962.70 levels; MCX gold prices are seen quoting at Rs.15200 levels. Commodity prices in the long term generally tend move in particular trend which is observed or analyzed in order to obtain likelihood of the same. The seasonality index in this regard helps one determine and identify the periodicity of the price action. Nevertheless as truly said by William I. Tierney, Jr., Mark L. Waller and Stephen H. Amosson "Seasonals are based on past prices and may merely reflect random effects rather than any true predisposition in market performance. Also, even if seasonal patterns are well founded and appear to be statistically reliable, seasonal effects can be over-whelmed by changing fundamental (and even technical) factors."
If seen historically, gold demand during October-March is high when compared to other months, as India, the world’s largest consumer of gold; goes through the festive and marriage seasons. Demand for gold is especially more during this period as gold is regarded as an eternal
beauty by Indians. Given below is the chart showing seasonal pattern in gold prices for the period during 2002-2008.
Prices of gold started rising from the month of September, took a dip between December and January and rose again until March. Between March and September, prices have been usually on the lower side.
Demand for gold is broadly classified into jewelry fabrication, industrial application, government and central banks, and private investors. The demand is generally concentrated in the Indian subcontinent, Turkey, and the Middle Eastern nations. Over 50% of the demand comes from the jewelry sector while industrial & dental and investment contribute to the rest. In Q308, jewelry demand constituted 58% of the total gold demand, while the remaining two categories had a share of 9% and 33%, respectively. Investment demand is other major source of demand which is more during period of uncertainty.
Although prices have increased by 8.8% on COMEX, domestic market have witnessed an increase of 11.44% as rupee depreciated by 1.52% and demand during festive season picks up. For instance, when gold reached $1033.90 levels on March 17, 2008, MCX gold prices made a high of Rs.13397 per 10 grams, while now when gold prices on COMEX are at $962.70 levels; MCX gold prices are seen quoting at Rs.15200 levels. Commodity prices in the long term generally tend move in particular trend which is observed or analyzed in order to obtain likelihood of the same. The seasonality index in this regard helps one determine and identify the periodicity of the price action. Nevertheless as truly said by William I. Tierney, Jr., Mark L. Waller and Stephen H. Amosson "Seasonals are based on past prices and may merely reflect random effects rather than any true predisposition in market performance. Also, even if seasonal patterns are well founded and appear to be statistically reliable, seasonal effects can be over-whelmed by changing fundamental (and even technical) factors."
If seen historically, gold demand during October-March is high when compared to other months, as India, the world’s largest consumer of gold; goes through the festive and marriage seasons. Demand for gold is especially more during this period as gold is regarded as an eternal
beauty by Indians. Given below is the chart showing seasonal pattern in gold prices for the period during 2002-2008.
Prices of gold started rising from the month of September, took a dip between December and January and rose again until March. Between March and September, prices have been usually on the lower side.
Titan unveils Nebula Calligraphy Collection for men
Nebula, the exquisite range of solid 18K gold watches from Titan, has introduced Nebula Calligraphy - a collection inspired by the art of Calligraphy. 
Bollywood actor Raima Sen unveiled the collection in the presence of Ms. Vandana Bhalla, Marketing Manager, Titan. Calligraphy means "beautiful writing".
Free spirited & uninhibited, this art form extends from alphabets to numerals to even abstract expressions using a vivid palette of colors. Meticulously crafted in 18K Gold, the Nebula Calligraphy collection is a unique blend of intricate craftsmanship and the delightful art of Calligraphy. Studded with dazzling diamonds and Italian styled leather straps, watches in this collection are brought alive by the exquisite use of calligraphy on the dials. Indices in the devnagri script adorn the mother of pearl dials while Sanskrit lipi shlokas quietly form the backdrop in some of the watches. The Classic forms and simple elegance captures the ingenuity and creativity of an invaluable collectible.
Speaking on the occasion, Ms. Vandana Bhalla, Marketing Manager,
Titan, said, "Every collection from Titan enables our customers to connect with their deep-rooted yearnings of self-expression, encouraging them to Be More in their lives. Nebula Calligraphy is a beautiful illustration of this theme as it allows them to bring alive their hidden love for art".
Unveiling the collection, Raima Sen, Bollywood actor said, "I am truly impressed with the inspiration and refined styling of these watches. I am an ardent lover of all art forms and the flowing lines of calligraphy as an art appeals greatly to me. I think every watch in this new collection from Titan Nebula is a beautiful piece of art." Created by the Titan design studio, every Nebula watch is crowned with a sapphire glass crystal and comes with a lifetime warranty.
This unique men's collection is available in 7 different styles, offering dial designs that range from the subtle use of the art to bolder versions. The collection is designed to appeal the discerning men with a keen interest in art forms. Priced between Rs. 65,000 – Rs. 95,000/-, the Nebula Calligraphy collection is available exclusively at the World of Titan showrooms across the country.
About Titan Nebula: Nebula is an exclusive collection of 18k solid gold jewellery watches from Titan Industries Ltd. and India's first solid gold watch brand. Crafted in 18k gold, the elegant watches are a blend of the rich heritage of Indian jewellery and the fine craftsmanship of watch making. The Nebula collection comprises a variety of exquisite watches in 18k gold both plain and embellished with pearls and diamonds. The Nebula range is available in kada & bracelet styles for women besides the classic leather strap style. For men, there are options available in leather strap or pure gold strap. The entire Nebula collection of jewellery watches ranges from Rs. 18,000 to Rs. 1,50,000 and is available across all World of Titan showrooms. Each watch comes with a lifetime warranty and is designed to last for generations.
About Titan Industries: Titan Industries Limited, a joint venture between the Tata Group and the Tamil Nadu Industrial Development Corporation (TIDCO) commenced operations in 1987 under the name Titan Watches Limited. In 1994, Titan Industries diversified into Jewellery and more recently into Prescription Eyewear with Titan Eye+. Today Titan Industries is India's leading producer and retailer of watches and jewellery, and is credited with changing the face of the Indian watch as well as the jewellery industry. The watch division has a domestic market share of over 70% of the organized market. Titan Industries reported a turnover of Rs. 3,046 Crore for the year ended 2007 - 08. As a full range producer-marketer, Titan Industries offers the Indian and International customer a very large range of products to suit various consumer preferences. Its products are recognized for innovation in design, quality and reliability.
Bollywood actor Raima Sen unveiled the collection in the presence of Ms. Vandana Bhalla, Marketing Manager, Titan. Calligraphy means "beautiful writing".
Free spirited & uninhibited, this art form extends from alphabets to numerals to even abstract expressions using a vivid palette of colors. Meticulously crafted in 18K Gold, the Nebula Calligraphy collection is a unique blend of intricate craftsmanship and the delightful art of Calligraphy. Studded with dazzling diamonds and Italian styled leather straps, watches in this collection are brought alive by the exquisite use of calligraphy on the dials. Indices in the devnagri script adorn the mother of pearl dials while Sanskrit lipi shlokas quietly form the backdrop in some of the watches. The Classic forms and simple elegance captures the ingenuity and creativity of an invaluable collectible.
Speaking on the occasion, Ms. Vandana Bhalla, Marketing Manager,
Titan, said, "Every collection from Titan enables our customers to connect with their deep-rooted yearnings of self-expression, encouraging them to Be More in their lives. Nebula Calligraphy is a beautiful illustration of this theme as it allows them to bring alive their hidden love for art".Unveiling the collection, Raima Sen, Bollywood actor said, "I am truly impressed with the inspiration and refined styling of these watches. I am an ardent lover of all art forms and the flowing lines of calligraphy as an art appeals greatly to me. I think every watch in this new collection from Titan Nebula is a beautiful piece of art." Created by the Titan design studio, every Nebula watch is crowned with a sapphire glass crystal and comes with a lifetime warranty.
This unique men's collection is available in 7 different styles, offering dial designs that range from the subtle use of the art to bolder versions. The collection is designed to appeal the discerning men with a keen interest in art forms. Priced between Rs. 65,000 – Rs. 95,000/-, the Nebula Calligraphy collection is available exclusively at the World of Titan showrooms across the country.
About Titan Nebula: Nebula is an exclusive collection of 18k solid gold jewellery watches from Titan Industries Ltd. and India's first solid gold watch brand. Crafted in 18k gold, the elegant watches are a blend of the rich heritage of Indian jewellery and the fine craftsmanship of watch making. The Nebula collection comprises a variety of exquisite watches in 18k gold both plain and embellished with pearls and diamonds. The Nebula range is available in kada & bracelet styles for women besides the classic leather strap style. For men, there are options available in leather strap or pure gold strap. The entire Nebula collection of jewellery watches ranges from Rs. 18,000 to Rs. 1,50,000 and is available across all World of Titan showrooms. Each watch comes with a lifetime warranty and is designed to last for generations.
About Titan Industries: Titan Industries Limited, a joint venture between the Tata Group and the Tamil Nadu Industrial Development Corporation (TIDCO) commenced operations in 1987 under the name Titan Watches Limited. In 1994, Titan Industries diversified into Jewellery and more recently into Prescription Eyewear with Titan Eye+. Today Titan Industries is India's leading producer and retailer of watches and jewellery, and is credited with changing the face of the Indian watch as well as the jewellery industry. The watch division has a domestic market share of over 70% of the organized market. Titan Industries reported a turnover of Rs. 3,046 Crore for the year ended 2007 - 08. As a full range producer-marketer, Titan Industries offers the Indian and International customer a very large range of products to suit various consumer preferences. Its products are recognized for innovation in design, quality and reliability.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
