Current PGM demand has made many projects unfeasible. But the fall in demand could also obliterate the deficit which has plagued the market over the past few years as well as push the market into a surplus until at least 2014. We expect demand to fall by almost 8% y/y, to 7,22m oz in 2009. Thereafter, we expect a y/y increases for platinum demand. The fall in demand is driven by car sales which could decline by 7m units from levels reached in 2008 as consumers in the US and Eurozone struggle to cope with economic conditions. We expect little support from jewellery demand which we expect to remain largely unchanged. Other industrial uses are also set to decline. In 2010, we expect a recovery in demand. While y/y growth rates could rise, the amount of platinum oz actually consumed would only reach the levels seen last year in 2011. By 2014, we estimate that total demand for platinum could reach 9.125m oz.
Platinum mine supply in 2008 is estimated at 6.7m oz. While we have already seen production cuts at platinum mines in South Africa, we doubt production cuts could completely offset the fall in demand in 2009. At current price levels, we expect production cuts of between 400K and 500K oz. Working with the low end of the range and adding 190K oz of new platinum supply coming to market, total supply should be 7.51m oz in 2009.
Furthermore, in H2:10, as demand starts to pick up, operations which were shut down this year could restart (we estimate 400K), allowing for supplyto come to the market faster than any new developments. We have assumed that the cutbacks are brought to market in equal proportions in 2010 and 2011. Another source of supply is scrap. While this is not set for a massive rise until 2011, scrap and recycled platinum could reach 1.8m oz by 2014. This, we believe, could see the platinum market in a constant surplus until 2014. Should recycled metal increase as mentioned, and demand is close to our assumed numbers, the surplus would rise rapidly as we approach 2014. Above-ground stock would rise as a result. Should this happen, it should restrain prices.
We use our PGM cost model to estimate a price for platinum, palladium and rhodium that is consistent with our estimate of a surplus of 300K oz of platinum in 2009, and the surpluses in following years. In our cost model, we assume mining inflation at 10% y/y until 2014 and ZAR/ USD at $10 in real terms. While cost inflation is low compared to mining inflation in the recent past, current deflationary forces should push some mining costs lower. We further assume that new projects would, in 2008 prices, not be more expensive than current operations. This assumption is justified on the premise that any mine more expensive than current mines would not be a viable operation, given the expected surplus in the market.
There is a caveat to our approach. Above-ground stock ofplatinum could rise by another 3.2m oz by 2014, from the current estimate of about 1m oz. As a result, the market could see this as excessive, and prices might fall. Above-ground stock of 4.2m oz would translate into a 160 days of consumption (at our 2014 demand levels) and this is much higher than the current estimate of 40 days. Arguably, some of the projects listed would not come to market, or at a much smaller scale.
Friday, January 30, 2009
"Cleo" valentine’s watch collection from Titan
Bold watches are in this season and this Valentine's Titan has got a line of watches called 'CLEO'.
Titan ‘CLEO’ reflects the energy and vibrancy of today's fashionistas. The watch is designed in a manner to fit for both both, office name wear or for a night out.
Styled with a louisiana croco leather strap in beige adorning the round studded case, this watch has a truly, contemporary form. The asymmetrically laid out indices in blue with an embellished seconds dial add a sparkling touch to complete this timepiece.This watch is priced at Rs. 3,995.
Meanwhile this contemporary creation with an international styling has a studded round case
complemented with multi function features. The white dial comes to life with the sub dials further studded to highlight the day, date and the 24-hour function. With its graceful steel bracelet, this watch is an irresistible accessory for modern women. This wrist wear is priced at Rs. 5,495.
The collection is available at all World of Titan showrooms and department stores across the country.
Titan ‘CLEO’ reflects the energy and vibrancy of today's fashionistas. The watch is designed in a manner to fit for both both, office name wear or for a night out.
Styled with a louisiana croco leather strap in beige adorning the round studded case, this watch has a truly, contemporary form. The asymmetrically laid out indices in blue with an embellished seconds dial add a sparkling touch to complete this timepiece.This watch is priced at Rs. 3,995.Meanwhile this contemporary creation with an international styling has a studded round case
complemented with multi function features. The white dial comes to life with the sub dials further studded to highlight the day, date and the 24-hour function. With its graceful steel bracelet, this watch is an irresistible accessory for modern women. This wrist wear is priced at Rs. 5,495. The collection is available at all World of Titan showrooms and department stores across the country.
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
India's first Architecture watch 'Bridge' by Xylys
Mumbai, January 20, 2009 : Xylys, the premium Swiss watch brand presented its 'Inspired By Architecture' line watch 'Bridge' to Hafeez Contractor at an event held at World of Titan on Tuesday.
Mr. Contractor, known for his many award winning architectural designs and for some of the most beloved building landmarks of India was felicitated by Xylys for his expertise and contributions to the field of architecture. It was a perfect opportunity that 'Bridge' - the watch that exemplifies exquisite architectural detailing - be presented to one of the stalwarts of modern Indian architecture.
"It's a pleasure to receive this brilliant form of craftsmanship from Xylys today. This is a watch I can associate closely with because of the intricate architectural designs incorporated in the watch which has impressed me a lot," said Contractor.
'Bridge' with its parallel arches miniaturizes the bridge architecture, to the midnight black bracelet that perfectly complements the dark dial. The attention to detail is prominent in the use of anti-reflective coating, scratch resistant sapphire crystal glass, and a 3 year warranty on both movement and battery. Priced at Rs. 14,000/- onwards, the collection is available in 5 distinct styles with both leather and metal bracelets.
The ladies range in the same line includes timepieces studded with 8 SIG1 diamonds and a mother of pearl dial making it a statement in luxury and precision.
Xylys is the premium watch brand from the house of Titan limited industries. It was launched in 2006 in collaboration with renowned Swiss designer Laurent Rufenacht and Titan's very own design advisor Michael Foley. The brand is targeted at men and women, who are today's people; supremely confident and conscious of the image they project. Priced between Rs. 8,000 and Rs. 25,000, the Xylys range of watches comes in three collections - Contemporary, Classic and Sport and offers over 60 distinctive models.
Mr. Contractor, known for his many award winning architectural designs and for some of the most beloved building landmarks of India was felicitated by Xylys for his expertise and contributions to the field of architecture. It was a perfect opportunity that 'Bridge' - the watch that exemplifies exquisite architectural detailing - be presented to one of the stalwarts of modern Indian architecture.
"It's a pleasure to receive this brilliant form of craftsmanship from Xylys today. This is a watch I can associate closely with because of the intricate architectural designs incorporated in the watch which has impressed me a lot," said Contractor.
'Bridge' with its parallel arches miniaturizes the bridge architecture, to the midnight black bracelet that perfectly complements the dark dial. The attention to detail is prominent in the use of anti-reflective coating, scratch resistant sapphire crystal glass, and a 3 year warranty on both movement and battery. Priced at Rs. 14,000/- onwards, the collection is available in 5 distinct styles with both leather and metal bracelets.
The ladies range in the same line includes timepieces studded with 8 SIG1 diamonds and a mother of pearl dial making it a statement in luxury and precision.
Xylys is the premium watch brand from the house of Titan limited industries. It was launched in 2006 in collaboration with renowned Swiss designer Laurent Rufenacht and Titan's very own design advisor Michael Foley. The brand is targeted at men and women, who are today's people; supremely confident and conscious of the image they project. Priced between Rs. 8,000 and Rs. 25,000, the Xylys range of watches comes in three collections - Contemporary, Classic and Sport and offers over 60 distinctive models.
Israel Publishes List of Top Polished Diamond Exporters
Ramat Gan, Israel, January 21, 2009: The annual list of Israel’s largest polished diamond exporters was published by the Israel Diamond Controller’s Office in the Ministry of Industry, Trade and Labor. Topping the list once again is L.L.D. Diamonds Ltd., owned by Lev Leviev, with exports of $417 million in 2008.
Second on the list of top exporters is Leo Schachter Ltd. with $352 million. In the third place is A. Dalumi Diamonds with $182 million.
In the fourth place is Espeka Diamonds International Ltd. with $159 million; after that is Yerushalmi Bros. with $150 million in exports in fifth place.
Next on the list are: A.A. Rachminov Ltd., sixth place, with $141 million in polished diamond exports; PDD Diamonds, seventh place with $121 million in exports; M.I.D. House of Diamonds Ltd., eighth place, at $111 million; Niru Diamonds Israel (1987) Ltd. in ninth place, with $91 million and SN Asia (Israel) Ltd. in tenth place with $86 million.
Israel Diamond Controller Shmuel Mordechai said that the net polished exports of the top 25 exporters totaled $2.567 billion, accounting for 41% of Israel’s total net polished diamonds. Mordechai added that the list of 25 does not include 17 companies, who chose not to publish their export figures.
All of the exporters listed above experienced a drop in their polished exports in 2008, reflecting the trend that was experienced throughout the industry. Israel’s total polished exports stood at $6.240 billion in 2008, a drop of 12% over 2007 when they totaled $7.075 billion.
Moti Ganz, Chairman of the Israel Diamond Institute Group of Companies (IDI) and President of the Israel Diamond Manufacturers Association (IsDMA) and the International Diamond Manufacturers Association (IDMA), said that despite the drop in exports this year, the Israeli Diamond Industry would maintain its leading position within the world industry.
“The world economic crisis is affecting all sectors, not only diamonds. The Israeli Diamond Industry is working hard to find ways to succeed in these difficult conditions. I am confident that we will see the fruits of these efforts in the near future.” Ganz noted that the major diamond exporters have made an important contribution to the Israeli Diamond Industry, as well as to Israel’s economy. However, he said, that the strength of Israel’s diamond industry is based on a broad spectrum of industry members – manufacturers, exporters and traders.
IDI Managing Director Eli Avidar said, “Especially in these trying times, IDI applauds the achievements of all of the industry’s exporters. IDI continues to put its resources to work in promoting exports in traditional and developing markets -- to the benefit of Israeli diamantaires large and small.”
Second on the list of top exporters is Leo Schachter Ltd. with $352 million. In the third place is A. Dalumi Diamonds with $182 million.
In the fourth place is Espeka Diamonds International Ltd. with $159 million; after that is Yerushalmi Bros. with $150 million in exports in fifth place.
Next on the list are: A.A. Rachminov Ltd., sixth place, with $141 million in polished diamond exports; PDD Diamonds, seventh place with $121 million in exports; M.I.D. House of Diamonds Ltd., eighth place, at $111 million; Niru Diamonds Israel (1987) Ltd. in ninth place, with $91 million and SN Asia (Israel) Ltd. in tenth place with $86 million.
Israel Diamond Controller Shmuel Mordechai said that the net polished exports of the top 25 exporters totaled $2.567 billion, accounting for 41% of Israel’s total net polished diamonds. Mordechai added that the list of 25 does not include 17 companies, who chose not to publish their export figures.
All of the exporters listed above experienced a drop in their polished exports in 2008, reflecting the trend that was experienced throughout the industry. Israel’s total polished exports stood at $6.240 billion in 2008, a drop of 12% over 2007 when they totaled $7.075 billion.
Moti Ganz, Chairman of the Israel Diamond Institute Group of Companies (IDI) and President of the Israel Diamond Manufacturers Association (IsDMA) and the International Diamond Manufacturers Association (IDMA), said that despite the drop in exports this year, the Israeli Diamond Industry would maintain its leading position within the world industry.
“The world economic crisis is affecting all sectors, not only diamonds. The Israeli Diamond Industry is working hard to find ways to succeed in these difficult conditions. I am confident that we will see the fruits of these efforts in the near future.” Ganz noted that the major diamond exporters have made an important contribution to the Israeli Diamond Industry, as well as to Israel’s economy. However, he said, that the strength of Israel’s diamond industry is based on a broad spectrum of industry members – manufacturers, exporters and traders.
IDI Managing Director Eli Avidar said, “Especially in these trying times, IDI applauds the achievements of all of the industry’s exporters. IDI continues to put its resources to work in promoting exports in traditional and developing markets -- to the benefit of Israeli diamantaires large and small.”
Monday, January 5, 2009
Precious metals directionless:Standard Bank
hin trading volumes throughout Asian electronic trading and the London session kept precious metals under pressure as the greenback bounced erratically between $1.3847 and $1.3975on Friday. However, a rally in US equity markets, possibly due to continued credit market thawing, eased investors' uncertainty. The resultant increase in investment fund flows filtered into precious metals, taking the metals higher during the New York session before a sudden reversal overnight as the greenback strengthened to $1.3850 again.
The rally during the New York session was also supported by higher crude oil prices (which we still believe reflects an inflated geopolitical risk premium). We note that WTI crudeoil gained from just above $42/bbl in early NY activity to just below $49/bbl in aftermarket electronic activity. Further oil price appreciation should anchor precious metal pricesin an environment of increased currency volatility.
On the economic data front, we note that both US and Eurozone December PMI manufacturing indices registered a contraction. US PMI manufacturing came in at 32.4 (forecast: 35), while the statistic for the Eurozone registered 33.9 (forecast: 34.5). Given that a PMI reading of less than 50 reflects a contraction, US and Eurozone industrial demand remains understrain - this should weigh on PGM in the short to medium term. The sentix Eurozone investor confidence index is due to be released later today - a worse-than-expected statistic could see the greenback claw even higher today. Important for PGM, lookout for US total vehicle sales tomorrow.
Gold slipped from $887 to $872 during Asian electronic activity, before shedding a further $7 in London. However, with oil prices picking up and the greenback losing some ground, gold then garnered fund-buying support - settling at $874 at the London PM fix. This continued in New York, with the metal gaining to $879 before consolidating at $878 at the close.Overnight, the metal plunged to $868. Primary support is at $863, with secondary support at $857 and $840. Resistance is at $880, $891 and $908.
Silver tracked gold throughout the day, finding major support in NY - managing to climb from $11.13 to $11.50, before consolidating at $11.48 at the close. Support and resistance are at $11.26 and $11.64, respectively, today.
Platinum bounced between $938 and $928 throughout London and Asia trading, before pushing higher in NY to $943 - settling at $938 at the NY close before plummeting to $930 overnight. Palladium traced platinum, dipping to $184 in London before $191 in NY - settling at $190 at the close. Compared to platinum, the metal endured a less rapid decline back to $190overnight after rising to $196 in the aftermarket activity. Rhodium fixed at $1,245.
The rally during the New York session was also supported by higher crude oil prices (which we still believe reflects an inflated geopolitical risk premium). We note that WTI crudeoil gained from just above $42/bbl in early NY activity to just below $49/bbl in aftermarket electronic activity. Further oil price appreciation should anchor precious metal pricesin an environment of increased currency volatility.
On the economic data front, we note that both US and Eurozone December PMI manufacturing indices registered a contraction. US PMI manufacturing came in at 32.4 (forecast: 35), while the statistic for the Eurozone registered 33.9 (forecast: 34.5). Given that a PMI reading of less than 50 reflects a contraction, US and Eurozone industrial demand remains understrain - this should weigh on PGM in the short to medium term. The sentix Eurozone investor confidence index is due to be released later today - a worse-than-expected statistic could see the greenback claw even higher today. Important for PGM, lookout for US total vehicle sales tomorrow.
Gold slipped from $887 to $872 during Asian electronic activity, before shedding a further $7 in London. However, with oil prices picking up and the greenback losing some ground, gold then garnered fund-buying support - settling at $874 at the London PM fix. This continued in New York, with the metal gaining to $879 before consolidating at $878 at the close.Overnight, the metal plunged to $868. Primary support is at $863, with secondary support at $857 and $840. Resistance is at $880, $891 and $908.
Silver tracked gold throughout the day, finding major support in NY - managing to climb from $11.13 to $11.50, before consolidating at $11.48 at the close. Support and resistance are at $11.26 and $11.64, respectively, today.
Platinum bounced between $938 and $928 throughout London and Asia trading, before pushing higher in NY to $943 - settling at $938 at the NY close before plummeting to $930 overnight. Palladium traced platinum, dipping to $184 in London before $191 in NY - settling at $190 at the close. Compared to platinum, the metal endured a less rapid decline back to $190overnight after rising to $196 in the aftermarket activity. Rhodium fixed at $1,245.
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